Satellite industry analyst Tim Farrar suspects that a long-rumoured deal of SpaceX buying Globalstar may be moving closer to fruition. This move, if successful, could lead to a shake-out in the direct-to-device sector.
Bloomberg reported in October 2025 about SpaceX’s interest in buying Globalstar, and noted the latter engaged with an investment bank to facilitate the deal.
Farrar, president at TMF Associates, said in a research note Globalstar executive chair James (Jay) Monroe “has finally achieved his goal” of selling the company at a profit.
“I understand that the sale process initiated back in October will reach its conclusion, and Globalstar will be sold at something close to Jay’s asking price of $10 billion”, Farrar stated.
He explained rumours are swirling at a satellite conference in Washington D.C. about the possible sale “and many people have guessed that the winning bidder would be Amazon”.
“That seemed to be the most likely outcome back in January. However, I think that Jay took Amazon’s offer to SpaceX and they probably decided to beat it, in order to further cement Starlink’s dominance of the satellite industry”.
He noted Amazon already faces severe competitive pressure from SpaceX’s Starlink in the broadband market, “and a Starlink purchase of Globalstar would block another opportunity for Amazon to broaden its appeal and match Starlink’s D2D offer”.
“Buying yet more spectrum might not be seen as the wisest course of action for SpaceX, if some international regulators decide that because Starlink controls Globalstar’s MSS spectrum there is no need to grant Starlink additional rights in the 2GHz MSS spectrum acquired from EchoStar”, he noted.
Farrar stated Federal Communications Commission chair Brendan Carr’s threats to block European satellite operators from the US market if the European Union (EU) withdraws Starlink’s spectrum rights “should carry the day in the near term”.
He said a two-year extension is likely to be granted for the current 2GHz spectrum licences, which he noted is conveniently beyond the November 2028 election.
“And 2029 is a long way away, given the number of balls Elon Musk has to juggle in the next few years to get Starship flying, meet NASA’s moon ambitions and sort out the challenges at xAI and Tesla”.
Apple
What is less clear is the fate of Globalstar’s C-3 constellation, which is a third-generation LEO network. Apple has a long-term contract with Globalstar for its satellite capabilities, agreeing a deal worth $1.1 billion with the provider in 2024.
Early last year, Globalstar reached a CAD1.1 billion ($767.1 million) contract extension with MDA Space to broaden its LEO constellation.
“Would Apple continue to pay Starlink hundreds of millions of dollars per year to support connectivity on existing iPhones? Would the C-3 constellation still be completed, especially if it takes MDA another two years or more, by which time Starlink might have its own next generation Starlink Mobile constellation on orbit?” asked Farrar. “That decision could go either way, depending on how confident SpaceX is that Starship will be ready to launch the next-generation constellation on time”.
Source: Mobile World Live
Image Credit: Starlink
